Experts and analysts were predicting their debacle this November in the midterm elections. But a summer of amplified attacks on abortion rights and raids at Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump’s home, have put Joe Biden’s Democrats in a better position at the polls for the next fall election.
At least that’s what a Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday shows, giving 47 percent of voting intentions to Democrats versus 44 percent for the party still dominated by Donald Trump. Last March, the same poll gave the Republicans a 5-point lead.
This is the first time in more than a year that the public opinion measure has shown a lead for the party in power in voting intentions across the United States. Historically, midterm elections have been a time when the White House is punished for its actions by favouring opposition candidates.
“To what, asks political analyst Bernard Goldberg in the pages of The Hill, should we attribute this Democratic revival, if that is what it is? To the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade last June [sur l’avortement] which stimulated the enthusiasm of many women voters” toward the Democratic vote.
The survey, which reached 1,300 registered voters between August 17 and 25, tends to prove him right in part, revealing an increase in Democratic voting intentions among independents, women and young people, but also among the African-American and Hispanic community, whose vote traditionally goes to the Democrats.
White suburban women – a particularly volatile group capable of switching political sides quickly – now say they are 52% ready to vote for a Democratic candidate in their district, compared to 40% for a Republican.
Among independent voters, who usually make the election wins and losses, the shift in opinion is also strong: 38 percent say they are willing to vote for Democrats, compared to 35 percent for Republicans. Last March, Donald Trump’s party was ahead by 12 points among this segment of the American electorate.
Until the beginning of the summer, “Republicans were cruising and Democrats were struggling,” analyzes Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who conducted the survey for the American Daily with fellow Democrat John Anzalone. “And then the abortion issue came up, acting a bit like a defibrillator for Democrats,” he adds, as quoted by the Wall Street Journal.
“The mood has changed among Republicans in recent weeks, from one of unbridled optimism to sober reflection on their chances of victory” ahead of the midterm elections, wrote the conservative and very Republican Washington Examiner a few days ago, while reminding us that Donald Trump’s party is now facing a cash crunch, a sign of some voter disaffection.
In the second quarter of 2022, online donations have indeed fallen by 12% for all the campaigns and political committees of his political formation, which nevertheless, since 2016 under the leadership of the populist, has managed to convince many voters to make small donations to feed, among other things, his attacks on the U.S. electoral system.
Simultaneously, contributions to Democratic campaign coffers, through these same small online donations, under $ 100, have climbed 21% over the same period.
In a sign of an unfavorable wind for Republicans, this week it was a Democrat, Mary Peltola, who won the special election in Alaska to fill the vacancy left by the death of Republican Don Young in the House of Representatives. She cut the ground from under Sarah Palin, who was hoping to make a comeback on the American federal political scene. No Democrat had held the seat since 1972.
In mid-August, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell admitted to reporters in Kentucky that his party’s chances of winning a majority in the upper chamber in November had now diminished considerably. He cited the “quality of the Republican candidates” in several states to justify his assertion. The Senate is currently evenly divided between the two dominant political parties in the United States. Donald Trump has endorsed atypical candidates supporting his spurious claims about stealing the 2020 election, many of whom are trailing in the polls in several states.
And if that wasn’t enough, the FiveThirtyEigh site is now predicting that Democrats have a 68% chance of retaining control of the Senate this November, up from 50% just a few weeks ago. This prediction should be taken with a grain of salt, however, two months before voting day, when other reversals are still possible.
Nevertheless, “for all this, the Democrats should send flowers to Donald Trump and a gift basket full of goodies,” commented Bernard Goldberg on Thursday. Never has a defeated American president put his party’s electoral chances in such a precarious state.”